|
IDC FUTURESCAN is a collection of metrics of IT industry leading indicators and customer surveys. Values are
based on expectations of future growth, with a value of 1000 equating to zero growth and each 10 points representing roughly 1% of expected growth.
These are external indicators only and don't represent IDC's forecast for the market, which is based on many more inputs and which relies on strict methodologies
and market definitions.
|
|
This Month's Results
The Spring winds remained cool in April, as anxiety around the short-term growth of the US economy increased in some quarters while some IT suppliers found it difficult to close deals at the end of Q1. There's nothing to indicate a broad-based slowdown in the economy or IT industry yet (the stock market remains relatively buoyant, still at higher levels than six months ago, and some tech firms have reported solid performance while others narrowly missed expectations). Rather, what seems to be taking hold is a period of volatility as some businesses sit on their hands while others continue to invest in the face of near term indicators which are providing a mixed message around the macroeconomic environment. Uncertainty is never good for business, and we can expect more ups and downs until the clouds begin to clear. The slowdown in PC shipments during Q1 may not be the leading indicator of a broad IT spending slowdown that it would have been ten years ago, but volatile capital spending patterns are a clear sign that economic anxiety continues to linger.
 |
|
|
History
The February poll, which saw respondents indicate that IT spending would increase by more than 5% in the next 12 months, is beginning to look like an optimistic outlier against the average trend since a year ago. Instead, businesses continue to indicate that enterprise tech spending will increase (on average) by around 3%. External market indicators have remained a little more stable, mainly because stock market investors have continued to place their bets on the long-term outlook of companies which were undervalued at this time last year. While economic anxiety has been on the rise again, most economists have held onto their cards since the turn of the year, with no major reductions to expectations for GDP or corporate profit growth over the next 18 months.
|
| |
|
Buyer Intent History:
|
|
|
Line of Business (LOB) managers and CIOs are back in sync, both sets of respondents predicting that tech spending will rise by around 3% in the next 12 months. We think that's probably a little on the conservative side, but not by much. PC revenues in Q1 were weak, and there have been signs of volatility for vendors across almost every segment of the market. Economic anxiety is still taking its toll on the confidence of IT buyers, after a year in which we've already been faced with the so-called 'fiscal cliff' and sequester within the first few months of 2013. Until economic forecasts improve markedly, buyers will likely remain conservative while nevertheless continuing to invest in high priority IT products and solutions at a moderate pace.
|
|
|
Market Indicators History
|
|
|
The main thing propping up our basket of macroeconomic indicators since the turn of the year has been stock markets, although some economic forecasts for this year have edged up slightly since the beginning of 2013. In general, macroeconomic forecasts have been remarkably stable since January, as economists sit on their hands while sifting through the wave of conflicting leading indicators and signals which continues to swirl around the US economy. As long as investors don't lose confidence in the resilience of underlying fundamentals, this period of relative calm should continue. But the outlook is fragile, and it probably wouldn't take much to tip us into a chain reaction of downgrades and deceleration. The second quarter of 2013 will likely be the most crucial.
|
|
The Buyer Intent metric is based on surveys of 400-500 U.S. CIOs and line-of-business executives on their expectations for IT spending growth during
the next 12 months. Results are carefully weighted to be representative of the U.S. market. These surveys are conducted monthly by the Quantitative Research Group
(QRG) within IDC's Global Research Organization.
|
|
|
The Market Indicator metric combines inputs from economic and IT industry supply-side indicators including:
- The stock market (S&P 500 over last 6 months)
- Current interest rates
- The current GDP forecast for the next 12 months
- The current US corporate profit forecast (next 12 months)
- The IDC IT Revenue Forecaster (% revenue growth expected next 2 quarters)
IDC combines and weights the inputs using information developed in its Leading IT Indicators program on the relationship of macroeconomic trends to IT spending.
|
|
|
IDC FUTURESCAN is a collection of metrics of IT industry leading indicators and customer surveys. Values are based on expectations of future growth, with a value
of 1000 equating to zero growth and each 10 points representing roughly 1% of expected growth.
These are external indicators only and don't represent IDC's forecast for the market, which is based on many more inputs and which relies on strict methodologies
and market definitions.
For more information about any of IDC's Black Books or other GRO products, please contact Amie White at awhite@idc.com
|
|
|
