IDC FUTURESCAN
is a collection of metrics of IT industry leading indicators and customer
surveys. Values are based on expectations of future growth, with a value
of 1000 equating to zero growth and each 10 points representing roughly
1% of expected growth.
These are external indicators only and don't represent IDC's
forecast for the market, which is based on many more inputs and which
relies on strict methodologies and market definitions.
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This Month's Results
A mid-summer bump, how nice.
Two really good points about this month’s FutureScan scores. One, the buyer intent number has now reached expected GDP growth. Yay, we might grow as fast as the economy as a whole. Two, the market indicators are still looking good, even though the months in the past to which many of the components are compared aren’t as bad as the ones just a few months earlier.
So, for all the worry about a double-dip recession and the slack in new home sales, we DO seem to be in recovery mode. What’s more, our new forecast for IT spending is out, and it has U.S. spending for the next twelve months growing at 5.2%.
Alright, everybody. Start cranking out RFPs for new IT gear and services.
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History
This is actually the smallest gap we have had between the two indicators in the last 12 months. Unemployment is actually down, barely, and GDP forecasts crept up since last month. The stock market is still iffy, but we haven’t had one of those scary plummets in a while.
From left to right we paint a pretty good picture of what was promised to be a long, slow recovery. Promise fulfilled.
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Buyer Intent
History: |
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For the second month in a row, the line of business execs show a little optimism, while the CIOs remain to be convinced – if not that an economic recovery is underway then that it will percolate through to their budgets.
But from what we can see at IDC, there is still a major hardware refresh going on, software sales are starting to pick up, and services backlogs are building even if revenue is not. So we still think the people we polled this month are unnecesarily skittish – perhaps they don’t want to jinx their chances to get more budget money from on high.
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Market
Indicators History |
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Wow, the indicators meet, the first time since April 2006 and only the second time in six years. But you can be sure they are just passing in the night.
The vendor revenue figure can be expected to be fairly slow-moving, and we wouldn’t expect much more upward growth. And the macroeconomic indicators are starting to tail back as the historical months to which they are compared improve. We would be surprised to see double digits (over 1100) again.
But the longer we stay in this vicinity the more remote the probability of a double-dip recession. But it is still a possibility.
If you want to hear how a double dip recession might come about and how it might affect the IT market, IDC will be holding a web conference on Thursday, August 5, 2010 on the matter. Go to www.idc.com to register. You can either attend live, or catch the replay.
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The Buyer Intent metric is based on surveys of 400-500
U.S. CIOs and line-of-business executives on their expectations
for IT spending growth during the next 12 months. Results
are carefully weighted to be representative of the U.S.
market. These surveys are conducted monthly by the Quantitative
Research Group (QRG) within IDC's Global Research Organization.
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The Market Indicator metric combines inputs from economic
and IT industry supply-side indicators including:
- The stock market (S&P 500 over last 6 months)
- Current interest rates
- The current GDP forecast for the next 12 months
- The current US corporate profit forecast (next 12 months)
- The IDC IT Revenue Forecaster (% revenue growth expected
next 2 quarters)
IDC combines and weights the inputs using information
developed in its Leading IT Indicators program on the
relationship of macroeconomic trends to IT spending.
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IDC FUTURESCAN is a collection of metrics of IT industry leading indicators
and customer surveys. Values are based on expectations of future
growth, with a value of 1000 equating to zero growth and each
10 points representing roughly 1% of expected growth.
These are external indicators only and don't represent
IDC's forecast for the market, which is based on many
more inputs and which relies on strict methodologies and market
definitions.
For more information about any of IDC's Black Books or other
GRO products, please contact Amie White at awhite@idc.com
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