TOKYO, May 24, 2012 — Japan automotive traction battery* shipments are forecast to increase at a 27.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from an estimated 1,654 MWh in 2011 to 5,661 MWh in 2016, according to new research from International Data Corporation (IDC) – Japan Semiannual Rechargeable Battery Tracker.

The shipment capacity of the Japan automotive traction battery market in the second half of 2011 (2H11) reached 1,002 MWh, a 71.1% increase from the same period in 2010 while user (automaker) spending reached US$785 million in 2H11, a 97.6% increase from the same period one year earlier.

In terms of battery type, nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery shipments increased 10.4% to 594 MWh, while lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery increased 766.3% to 408 MWh. Demand for Ni-MH batteries, which have been supporting the growth of automotive traction battery market, increased moderately despite the fact that hybrid vehicle (HV) production decreased due to the supply-chain disruption caused by the Thailand flood crisis; while the rapid recovery from production cutback forced by the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake was realized. In contrast, Li-ion batteries, which are mainly used for the electric vehicle (EV) segment, increased significantly along with EV demands and greatly contributed to the overall expansion of the Japan automotive traction battery market in 2H11. EVs reached market formation stage in 2011 and experienced only relatively minor impacts from those natural disasters.

In terms of vendor share, Primearth EV Energy captured the number 1 position with approximately 50% market share in megawatt hour in 2H11, followed by Automotive Energy Supply and Panasonic (including Sanyo).

According to IDC's most recent forecast, Japan's automotive traction battery market will make a complete recovery in 1H12 from the disasters and grow by 127.3% to 1,482 MWh in shipment capacity and 139.9% to US$1,174 million in user (automaker) spending. The Ni-MH battery market will increase by 82.5% from the previous period to 763 MWh while Li-ion battery market will increase by 207.3% to 719 MWh.

Japan Automotive Traction Battery Shipments, 2011-2016

Source: IDC's Japan Semiannual Rechargeable Battery Tracker, April 2012

Automakers are planning to launch (or have already launched) new EVs, HVs, and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs) in 2012 and Li-ion battery used for those vehicles will drive the entire market in 2012. As a result, shipments of Li-ion batteries will surpass Ni-MH batteries in the Japan automotive traction battery market in megawatt hour for the first time. Prices of Li-ion batteries will be a growth-inhibiting factor by value in the long run but overall Japan automotive traction battery market will increase to 5,661 MWh with a 27.9% CAGR in shipment capacity or US$4,079 million with a 26.2% CAGR in user (automaker) spending, from 2011 to 2016.

"Most of the automotive traction battery vendors in Japan have been sticking to domestic production due to concerns about the outflow of battery technologies. However, planned overseas (outside Japan) production of EV, HV, and PHV and severe price competition with foreign battery vendors will force them to shift their production overseas. The business judgement from a long-term perspective is required for Japan battery vendors," says Kazuhiko Ishimori, group manager, Energy, IDC Japan.

The detailed data is included in IDC's Japan Semiannual Rechargeable Battery Tracker (IDC #J12061302). This tracker provides historical and forecast data of user spending in US$ and yen value, shipments in energy capacity (MWh), cell units and pack units for automotive traction battery in Japan with detailed classification including vender (for historical data only), battery type (Li-ion and Ni-MH), application (battery EV, HV, PHV), cell format (cylindrical, prismatic, pouch), pack capacity (kWh), energy density (Wh/kg), volumetric energy density (Wh/L), power density (W/kg), positive and negative electrode active materials for Li-ion battery. Historical and forecast data cover Japan domestic shipments (introduced in this press release) and Japan domestic production (including export from Japan).

* Automotive traction battery is a rechargeable battery used for driving electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid vehicles (HVs) or plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs).

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 48 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

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